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Yields on the U.S. benchmark 10-year Treasury , which move inversely to prices, saw their steepest decline in more than a decade. The Fed chair reiterated that the fight against inflation was far from finished and said the central bank was ready to further tighten monetary policy if necessary. Investors see a strong chance of the central bank delivering a rate cut as early as March 2024, LSEG data show. In late 2022, for example, many expected a recession would hit this year, forcing the Fed to loosen monetary policy. The economy proved resilient while monetary policy stayed tight.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Brendan McDermid, Powell, Paul Nolte, Christopher Waller, “ Powell, that’s, ”, Ed Al, James St . Aubin, David Randall, Lewis Krauskopf, Saqib Iqbal Ahmed, Ira Iosebashvili, Daniel Wallis Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Federal, Fed, Treasury, Murphy, Sylvest Wealth Management, Columbia Threadneedle Investments, Sierra Investment Management, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S

☆ Retail traders cash out as market rallies on bets of end to rate hikes
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-16 | by ( Medha Singh | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., June 29, 2023. Retail traders, who used to band together on online platforms to chase highly shorted shares during the days of easy money, have been seeing a reversal of fortunes as rising rates diminish their holdings in high-risk, high-return assets. "Seasonality suggests that retail investors are unlikely to support any year-end rally, except for big-tech," Vanda's Mantle said. Despite their overall slow buying, there were spurts of activity where retail traders chased sharp rallies in some small cap names - a typical trading strategy. "If we don't get any follow through it would be hard to say we've got retail traders back in the game," said Paul Nolte, senior wealth advisor and market strategist at Murphy & Sylvest Wealth Management.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Vanda, Morgan, Lucas Mantle, Vanda's Mantle, Paul Nolte, Medha Singh, Arun Koyyur Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Vanda Research, Retail, P Global Market Intelligence, Murphy, Sylvest Wealth, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Bengaluru

Traders work on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., October 26, 2023. Such hopes, coupled with upbeat earnings reports, have put all three major Wall Street indexes on course for their biggest weekly percentage gain in about a year. Apple (AAPL.O) was an outlier, down 1.3% after its sales forecast for the holiday quarter fell short of Wall Street expectations. Most major S&P 500 sectors traded in the green, led by real estate (.SPLRCR), which jumped 3.3% to an over one-month high. The S&P index recorded 17 new 52-week highs and no new low, while the Nasdaq recorded 42 new highs and 51 new lows.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, nonfarm, Paul Nolte, Murphy, Russell, Amruta Khandekar, Sriraj Kalluvila, Maju Samuel Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Apple, Dow, Nasdaq, Federal, Labor, Big, Fed, Sylvest Wealth Management, Federal Reserve, Treasury, Nvidia, Dow Jones, NYSE, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S

Oct 9 (Reuters) - Fears of a widening conflict in the Middle East are threatening more volatility for investors after a painful stretch in U.S. markets. Investors were on guard for the potential of the conflict spreading to embroil other countries, including Iran, and a continued spike in oil prices. Prices for gold, a popular destination for investors during uncertain times, were up 1.2% at $1,854.10 per ounce. Among those is the potential of a rebound in oil prices that could weigh on U.S. economic growth and endanger the so-called soft landing narrative that has helped boost stocks this year. “The worst-case scenario from a geopolitical risk perspective would be a full-scale confrontation between Israel and Iran,” said Tina Fordham, geopolitical strategist and founder of Fordham Global Foresight.

Persons: Brent, ”, Mohit Kumar, Tina Fordham, Paul Nolte, Emmanuel Cau, Althea Spinozzi, Naomi Rovnick, Lewis Krauskopf, Dhara Ranasinghe, Davide Barbuscia, Noel Randewich, Marc Jones, Ira Iosebashvili, Nick Zieminski Organizations: Jefferies, Fordham Global Foresight, Federal Reserve, Murphy, Sylvest Wealth Management, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Treasury, Barclays, Mobileye, Intel, Solaredge Technologies, East, Saxo Bank, Thomson Locations: U.S, Gaza, Iran, Europe, London, Israel, United States, Germany

Oct 9 (Reuters) - Fears of a widening conflict in the Middle East are threatening more volatility for investors after a painful stretch in U.S. markets. Investors were on guard for the potential of the conflict spreading to embroil other countries, including Iran, and a continued spike in oil prices. Prices for gold, a popular destination for investors during uncertain times, were up 0.9% at $1,849.40 per ounce. Among those is a potential rebound in oil prices that could weigh on U.S. economic growth and endanger the so-called soft landing narrative that has helped boost stocks this year. “The worst-case scenario from a geopolitical risk perspective would be a full-scale confrontation between Israel and Iran,” said Tina Fordham, geopolitical strategist and founder of Fordham Global Foresight.

Persons: Brent, ”, Mohit Kumar, Tina Fordham, Paul Nolte, Murphy, Emmanuel Cau, Althea Spinozzi, Naomi Rovnick, Lewis Krauskopf, Dhara Ranasinghe, Davide Barbuscia, Marc Jones, Ira Iosebashvili, Nick Zieminski Organizations: Jefferies, Fordham Global Foresight, Federal Reserve, Sylvest Wealth Management, Treasury, Barclays, Mobileye, Intel, Solaredge Technologies, East, Saxo Bank, Thomson Locations: U.S, Gaza, Iran, Europe, London, Israel, United States, Germany

(Reuters) - The S&P 500 ended lower on Friday as investors digested implications of a U.S. inflation report for the Federal Reserve’s interest rate policy and adjusted their portfolios on the last day of a weak third quarter for stocks. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid/File PhotoThe benchmark S&P 500 also posted its biggest monthly percentage drop of the year. The data revealed a “better than expected but still elevated inflation picture,” said Eric Freedman, chief investment officer at U.S. Bank Asset Management. Meanwhile, Freedman said, “we are at quarter end, and with quarter end comes all sorts of activities across both the stock and bond markets.”According to preliminary data, the S&P 500 lost 11.37 points, or 0.26%, to end at 4,288.33 points, while the Nasdaq Composite gained 18.05 points, or 0.18%, to 13,224.52. Among S&P 500 sectors, energy and financials declined sharply.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, ”, Eric Freedman, Freedman, ” Freedman, Paul Nolte, Murphy, Morgan Organizations: Reuters, New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Data, Fed, U.S, Bank Asset Management, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, Energy, “ Energy, Equity, Sylvest Wealth Management, Investors, Republicans, U.S . House, Traders, Nike Locations: U.S, New York City, Washington

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., September 11, 2023. Energy (.SPNY) was the top S&P 500 sector gainer, up 1.1%, as crude prices firmed near the $95-per-barrel mark on tight supply. Chipmaker Micron Technology (MU.O) rose 1.3%, following Friday's rout, after Deutsche Bank upgraded its stock rating to "buy" from "hold". Declining issues outnumbered advancers by a 1.02-to-1 ratio on the NYSE and by a 1.46-to-1 ratio on the Nasdaq. The S&P index recorded five new 52-week highs and 11 new lows, while the Nasdaq recorded 24 new highs and 172 new lows.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Bernstein, Piper Sandler, Paul Nolte, Goldman Sachs, Janus Henderson, Wells, MoffettNathanson, Ankika Biswas, Shristi, Savio D'Souza, Vinay Dwivedi Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Corp, Holdings, Micron, L3Harris, Dow, Nasdaq, Energy, VF, Microsoft, U.S, Treasury, Murphy, Sylvest Wealth Management, Traders, Morgan Asset Management, Janus Henderson Investors, Arm Holdings, Dow Jones, Chipmaker Micron Technology, Deutsche Bank, L3Harris Technologies, PayPal Holdings, NYSE, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Bengaluru

☆ Stocks decline, Treasury yields jump as investors weigh rate outlook
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-05 | by ( Caroline Valetkevitch | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

[1/3] Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., August 15, 2023. The Dow led declines among the three major stock indexes on Wall Street, even as higher oil lifted shares of some energy companies. Oil prices rose to their highest since November after Saudi Arabia and Russia extended their voluntary supply cuts to the end of the year. The pan-European STOXX 600 index (.STOXX) lost 0.23% and MSCI's gauge of stocks across the globe (.MIWD00000PUS) shed 0.60%. Brent crude futures rose by $1.04, or 1.2%, to settle at $90.04 a barrel, while U.S. crude futures gained $1.14, or 1.3%, to settle at $86.69 a barrel.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Paul Nolte, Murphy, Christopher Waller, Dow, Caroline Valetkevitch, Sinead Carew, Samuel Indyk, Ankur Banerjee, Shounak Dasgupta, Mike Harrison, Lincoln Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, U.S, Sylvest Wealth Management, Investors, Fed, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Brent, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, China, Europe, Britain, Elmhurst , Illinois, Saudi Arabia, Russia, New York, London

With U.S. crude oil prices rallying on Tuesday, Nolte also cited recent strength in oil prices as a damper to the Fed's efforts to push inflation back to 2%. Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., August 29, 2023. The Dow Jones Transport index (.DJT) finished off 2.2%, weighed down by a slide in airline stocks as rising oil prices implied higher fuel costs. Shares of Airbnb (ABNB.O) rallied 7% while Blackstone (BX.N) added 3.6% on news that their stocks would join the S&P 500 index. The S&P 500 posted 12 new 52-week highs and 25 new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 50 new highs and 142 new lows.

Persons: Blackstone, Christopher Waller, Paul Nolte, Murphy, Nolte, Sam Stovall, Brendan McDermid, Goldman Sachs, advancers, Sinéad Carew, Shristi, Arun Koyyur, Shounak Dasgupta, Richard Chang Organizations: Dow, Nasdaq, Monday, Monday . U.S, Treasury, Sylvest Wealth Management, Traders, Labor, CFRA Research, Dow Jones, New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Transport, United Airlines, U.S, Blackstone, Oracle, Barclays, NYSE, Thomson Locations: Monday ., Elmhurst , Illinois, New York City, U.S, Saudi Arabia, Russia, New York, Bengaluru

☆ Analysis: US stock gains may grow elusive as boost from inflation slowdown wanes
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-10 | by ( Lewis Krauskopf | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

The S&P 500 (.SPX) has gained more than 16% on a year-to-date basis, though it was last trading largely flat on Thursday. The latest CPI report "is good news. However, another CPI report is due to be released before that meeting. The CPI report is "obviously positive for the markets," said Paul Nolte, senior wealth advisor and market strategist for Murphy & Sylvest Wealth Management. The month of August has delivered on average the third-lowest return for the S&P 500 since 1945, with September ranking as the lowest, according to CFRA Research.

Persons: Carlo Allegri, Jack Ablin, Guy LeBas, Janney Montgomery Scott, LeBas, Paul Nolte, Murphy, Refinitiv, Barry Bannister, Bannister, Lewis Krauskopf, Karen Brettell, Ira Iosebashvili, Paul Simao Organizations: REUTERS, Federal, CPI, Cresset, Sylvest Wealth Management, Research, Thomson Locations: Manhattan, New York City , New York, U.S, Jackson Hole , Wyoming

"We'll have a much better sense after we get another major data point on Friday with the jobs report and the inflation data next week." MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) closed 0.93% lower, while Japan's Nikkei (.N225) lost 0.25%. In currencies, the U.S. dollar edged higher against other major currencies after Fed minutes reinforced expectations of another interest rate hike at the end of the month. The dollar index rose 0.272%, with the euro down 0.22% to $1.0853. And market participants were awaiting demand data from the July 4 U.S. holiday weekend, which tends to mark the peak U.S. travel season.

Persons: Mike Segar, outstrip Brent, Michael James, Jack Janasiewicz, Janasiewicz, ”, Paul Nolte, Sterling, Brent, Sinéad Carew, Lewis Krauskopf, Tom Wilson, Stella Qiu, Dhara, Sam Holmes, Helen Popper, Will Dunham, Christina Fincher Organizations: Wall, New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, . Federal Reserve, Wedbush Securities, U.S . Commerce, Companies, U.S, Solutions, Traders, Murphy, Sylvest Wealth Management, “, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Japan's Nikkei, Treasury, Brent, Thomson Locations: Manhattan, New York City , New York, U.S, Los Angeles, United States, China, Washington, Europe, Asia, Pacific, Japan, Saudi Arabia, Russia, New York, London, Sydney

Key economic data is due before the meeting, including the monthly U.S. jobs report on Friday. “The markets are in a wait-and-see for the economic data,” said Paul Nolte, senior wealth advisor and market strategist at Murphy & Sylvest Wealth Management. Materials (.SPLRCM) fell most among S&P 500 sectors, shedding 2.5%. Chip stocks fell after China said it would control exports of some metals widely used in the semiconductor industry as tensions between Beijing and Washington rise over access to high-tech microchips. The S&P 500 posted 18 new 52-week highs and one new low; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 55 new highs and 65 new lows.

Persons: ”, Paul Nolte, “, Jack Ablin, Lewis Krauskopf, Sinead Carew, Bansari Mayur Kamdar, Johann M, Marguerita Choy, Vinay Dwivedi Organizations: Fed, Dow, Nasdaq, U.S, U.S . Federal, Murphy, Sylvest Wealth Management, “, Dow Jones, Semiconductor, Intel, Texas, Twitter, Meta, Cresset, United Parcel Service, Teamsters Union, UPS, NYSE, Thomson Locations: U.S ., China, Beijing, Washington, Philadelphia, New York, Bengaluru

[1/2] Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., April 10, 2023. Chipmaker Intel Corp (INTC.O) gained 6.1% after it said gross margins will improve in the second half of the year. Amazon.com Inc (AMZN.O) fell 3.5% as the company signaled its cloud growth would slow further, overshadowing its better-than-expected quarterly results. Analysts expect first-quarter earnings for S&P 500 companies to fall 2.4% year-over-year compared with a 5.1% fall expected at the start of April. Advancing issues outnumbered decliners by a 3.01-to-1 ratio on the NYSE and a 2.01-to-1 ratio on the Nasdaq.

The main U.S. indexes ended up sharply on Thursday, with the benchmark S&P 500 (.SPX) logging its biggest one-day percentage gain since early January. Analysts expect first-quarter earnings for S&P 500 companies to fall 2.4% year-over-year compared with a forecast for a 5.1% fall at the start of April. ET, Dow e-minis were down 115 points, or 0.34%, S&P 500 e-minis were down 10 points, or 0.24%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were down 14.75 points, or 0.11%. Chipmaker Intel Corp (INTC.O) gained 6.5% after it said gross margins will improve in the second half of the year. Colgate-Palmolive Co (CL.N) inched up 0.7% after the toothpaste maker lifted its annual organic sales forecast betting on consistent price hikes.

J&J (JNJ.N) shares fell 2.8% after the healthcare conglomerate cautioned investors over the lingering impact of inflation-driven costs this year. Goldman (GS.N) shares dropped 1.7% after the Wall Street firm's profit fell 19% as dealmaking and bond trading slumped. The early quarterly results from S&P 500 companies come as investors have been bracing for a gloomy reporting season, fearing the economy may be on the cusp of a downturn. S&P 500 company earnings are expected to have declined 4.8% in the first quarter from a year earlier, according to Refinitiv IBES data as of Friday. The S&P 500 posted 28 new 52-week highs and no new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 66 new highs and 143 new lows.

Such diversification failed to benefit investors last year, when stocks and bonds both tumbled as the Federal Reserve raised rates to fight surging inflation. A typical 60/40 portfolio tracked by Vanguard last year suffered its worst annual decline since 2008. "Inflation, and the perception of tighter credit as a result of inflation, is going to hurt both bonds and stocks,” he said. But benchmark Treasury yields drifted lower, at least partially offsetting those declines. "We now have yield in the bond market, which we haven’t had for 10 years," said Paul Nolte, market strategist at Murphy & Sylvest Wealth Management.

☆ Wall Street Week Ahead: Retailers' results may be next test for rally in U.S. stocks
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-19 | by ( Lewis Krauskopf | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Nolte is considering buying home-improvement retailer stocks that were hit hard in 2022 as the housing market struggled. Other companies set to report next week include chip company Nvidia (NVDA.O), COVID-19 vaccine maker Moderna (MRNA.O) and e-commerce firm eBay (EBAY.O). Both companies are set to report on Tuesday and will "set the stage for everyone else," according to JPMorgan retail analysts. Reuters GraphicsAmong the other retailers set to report in the coming week are TJX Companies (TJX.N) and Bath & Body Works (BBWI.N). "We are clearly emphasizing retailers in select industries versus the mass market retailers," Tuz said.

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